As a long-time observer of the Kwara gubernatorial elections since 2007 and a seasoned political analyst with extensive experience, I offer this opinion based on facts, data, and genuine feedback.
It’s known that the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly is among the few individuals showing interest in succeeding Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq in the 2027 elections. Notably, he is a young and humble leader from a region that believes it is their turn to govern Kwara, and they are actively pursuing this goal.
I want to focus on Hon. Danladi for two key reasons. Firstly, he has garnered significant support from the younger generation within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara North, with enthusiastic supporters spanning from Patigi to Tsaragi, Lade, Kaiama, Ilesha Baruba, and beyond. I have engaged with many of these individuals and can attest to their commitment to his candidacy. Secondly, there is a strong movement advocating for power to be shifted to Kwara North, with the region’s traditional rulers taking a lead role in this effort. The nine first-class traditional rulers from the area have united to assert that it is their region’s turn to govern the state. It is important to note that this aspiration is not solely for Danladi, but for all individuals from Kwara North who wish to enter the race.
Having clarified these points, let us now turn our attention to the main issues at hand.
Based on my survey and first-hand observations, it appears that Hon. Danladi enjoys a level of popularity within the APC political caucus, particularly due to the prevailing rumor that he is the favored candidate of Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq. However, this support appears to be somewhat superficial when we consider his standing outside the political circle. Among ordinary citizens, especially those engaged in trade within the markets, his name does not resonate strongly. Furthermore, among the elite class, he does not rank as a popular contender for the highest political office in the state.
Internally within the APC, there exists a faction that is skeptical of Danladi’s candidacy. This skepticism is a common phenomenon in democratic environments where differing opinions often coexist. While I have observed proactive efforts by Danladi’s campaign team to promote his candidacy to the electorate ahead of the primaries, particularly in Kwara South, an area where I possess considerable knowledge of the political landscape, these efforts have faced significant challenges. Despite numerous meetings and interactions intended to galvanize support from the region, the response has been lukewarm at best.
A few months ago, a notable event occurred when the House of Assembly members from Kwara South, in collaboration with local government chairmen from the area, convened a meeting in Igosun to publicly declare their unwavering support for Danladi’s candidacy. Contrary to their expectations, this declaration was met with intense backlash from the local populace. Many residents criticized their elected representatives for what they perceived as a failure to align with the sentiments and opinions of their constituents, sparking widespread discontent, including the APC Kwara South Senatorial Chairman.
In addition to these challenges, the unpredictable nature of politics also plays a significant role in shaping the narrative surrounding Danladi’s candidacy. Predictions are often fraught with uncertainty, and while many speculate that should the governor express interest in a candidate from Kwara North, Danladi would be in a favorable position, it is crucial to recognize that he seems to be heavily reliant on the decisions of Governor Abdulrasaq and the traditional leaders from his region. For instance, one of the traditional leaders mentioned that the governor instructed them to “go and put their houses in order first,” suggesting that there is an expectation for regional leaders to consolidate their support before approaching the governor for favor.
The political landscape requires precision and insight, as evidenced by past events, including the intricate system that led to the election of Governor Abdulrahman in 2018. Furthermore, it is important to acknowledge that the national body of the APC party may intervene in candidate selection, which has significant implications for Danladi’s aspirations. If he genuinely intends to advance his political ambitions, he must extend his outreach beyond the confines of regional loyalties and familiar ears. His ambitions need to be articulated directly to the key decision-makers.
If Danladi is indeed a student of political history, he should take heed of the lessons learned from the 2022 primary elections, where multiple candidates reported that the governor had allegedly made similar promises regarding candidacies to all of them. This backdrop suggests that he must adopt a more strategic approach to his campaign; he should cultivate a distinct identity that differentiates him from other contenders rather than solely relying on perceived favoritism.
Moreover, it is worth noting that Danladi has been actively utilizing the APC youth wing to bolster his campaign efforts. While this is a commendable strategy, there is a pressing need for caution in his approach. Some members of the youth wing exhibit tendencies to treat dissenting opinions as adversarial, fostering an atmosphere that mistakenly suggests their proprietary claim to govern the state by 2027 is guaranteed. This dynamic could potentially alienate vital segments of the electorate and hinder his overall campaign efforts.
Among the contenders in his party, he is the youngest, he also holds the highest political office, he is closer to the establishments, he needs to be more feasible in voice and action, I have also seen a divided house within the APC leaders in Kwara Central, those loyal to the governor are running Danladi’s bid, those loyal to Senator Mustapha and a few others are not on the same page with them. I wish him well.
Temitope Muhideen is the publisher of Confidence News Nigeria and a Member of Greenfield Library Limited, Atlanta USA
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